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AUTOZONE INC (AZO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY2025 delivered modest topline growth ($4.28B, +2.1% YoY) with diluted EPS flat at $32.52 amid FX headwinds and SG&A deleverage; gross margin expanded 16 bps to 53.0% on merchandising gains .
  • Same-store sales were +0.4% reported and +1.8% constant currency; domestic +0.3%, international +13.7% constant currency (1.0% reported) as a stronger USD depressed reported sales and EPS by ~$0.68 per share; Mexico FX rates weakened 13% vs USD, causing ~$58M sales and ~$17M EBIT drag .
  • Management expects Q2 FY2025 FX drag of ~$95M revenue, ~$30M EBIT, ~$1.30 EPS and full-year FY2025 FX drag of ~$355M revenue, ~$120M EBIT, ~$4.90 EPS; no LIFO credit expected in Q2; tax rate suggested at ~23.4% and interest expense ~$108M .
  • Strategic catalysts: accelerated Mega-Hub rollout (new objective “just under 300”), ~100 international store openings in FY2025, and >$1B capex focused on inventory proximity, DCs, and technology to lift customer service and delivery speed .
  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable due to a data access limit, so we cannot assess beats/misses versus estimates for this quarter [GetEstimates error].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • International strength: same-store sales up ~13.7% constant currency; reported comps were +1% but FX headwinds masked strong local performance .
  • Gross margin expansion: 53.0% (+16 bps YoY; +21 bps ex-LIFO) driven by merchandising margin improvement despite freight inflation and new DC start-up drag .
  • Commercial momentum: domestic DIFM sales +3.2% to $1.13B with improving end-of-quarter trends; Mega-Hub strategy driving outsized growth and higher sales per program in those markets .
  • Quote: “We feel we are well positioned for growth heading into the remainder of the fiscal year… initiatives to improve customer service and grow market share are on track.” – CEO Phil Daniele .

What Went Wrong

  • FX headwinds: Mexico FX rates weakened 13% vs USD, depressing reported sales, EBIT, and EPS; ~$0.68 EPS drag in Q1 .
  • SG&A deleverage: operating expenses rose 4.5% YoY; SG&A as % of sales increased 75 bps to 33.3% amid ongoing growth investments in IT and capex .
  • DIY softness continues: domestic DIY comp down 0.4%; discretionary categories (~17% of mix) underperformed; traffic down ~1.8% despite +1.3% ticket growth; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt weaker (down ~1.8% vs -0.1% elsewhere) .
  • Calendar shift headwind: comp methodology impacted comps by ~1 point this quarter; expected to drag Q2 and reverse in Q3–Q4 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024 (Adj. 16w)Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$4.235 $5.840 $4.280
Diluted EPS ($USD)$36.69 $48.11 $32.52
Gross Profit Margin %53.5% 52.6% adj context (Q4 GAAP 52.5%) 53.0%
Operating Expenses % of Sales32.2% 31.8% adj context (Q4 GAAP 31.6%) 33.3%
Operating Profit (EBIT, $USD Millions)$900.2 $1,209.9 (Adj) $841.1
Net Income ($USD Millions)$651.7 $841.5 (Adj) $564.9

Notes: Q4 FY2024 was a 17-week quarter; adjusted 16-week figures shown for comparability .

YoY (Q1 FY2025 vs Q1 FY2024):

  • Net sales $4.280B vs $4.190B (+2.1%) .
  • Diluted EPS $32.52 vs $32.55 (-0.1%) .
  • Net income $564.9M vs $593.5M (-4.8%) .

Same-Store Sales and Mix KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Domestic SSS (%)0.0% 0.2% (16w comparable) 0.3%
International SSS (%)18.1% 4.9% (16w comparable) 1.0%
Total Company SSS (%)1.9% 0.7% (16w comparable) 0.4%
Intl SSS Constant Currency (%)9.3% 9.9% 13.7%
Total SSS Constant Currency (%)0.9% 1.3% 1.8%
Sales per Avg Store ($, period)$576 (12w) $835 (17w) $570 (12w)
Sales per Avg Sq Ft ($, period)$86 (12w) $124 (17w) $85 (12w)
AP/Inventory (%)119.7% 119.5% 119.5%
Inventory Turns (x)1.4x 1.5x 1.4x

Segment/Category Mix – Q1 FY2025

SegmentQ1 2025 ($USD Thousands)% YoY
Total Auto Parts Sales$4,199,732 +2.0%
Domestic Commercial Sales$1,128,237 +3.2%
All Other (incl. ALLDATA)$79,909 +7.1%

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow – Q1 FY2025

MetricQ1 2025Q1 2024Q4 2024
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Thousands)$304,018 $282,981 $298,172
Merchandise Inventories ($USD Thousands)$6,274,070 $5,774,467 $6,155,218
Total Assets ($USD Thousands)$17,465,762 $16,292,570 $17,176,538
Accounts Payable ($USD Thousands)$7,498,696 $7,182,948 $7,355,701
Total Debt ($USD Thousands)$9,012,539 $8,583,523 $9,024,381
Cash Flow from Operations ($USD Thousands, period)$811,803 (12w) $830,259 (12w) $1,070,250 (17w)
Capital Spending ($USD Thousands, period)$247,035 (12w) $235,428 (12w) $346,786 (17w)

Share Repurchases – Q1 FY2025

  • Repurchased 160k shares at avg price $3,156; total $505.2M; remaining authorization $1.7B; cumulative program $37.5B since 1998; shares outstanding end of quarter 16,810k .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Interest Expense ($USD Millions)Q2 FY2025Not provided~$108 New
Tax Rate (%)Q2 FY2025Not provided~23.4% (pre option credits) New
LIFO CreditsQ2 FY2025N/ANo credits expected New
FX Drag – Revenue ($USD Millions)Q2 FY2025Not provided~$95 New
FX Drag – EBIT ($USD Millions)Q2 FY2025Not provided~$30 New
FX Drag – EPS ($USD)Q2 FY2025Not provided~$1.30 New
FX Drag – Revenue ($USD Millions)FY2025Not provided~$355 New
FX Drag – EBIT ($USD Millions)FY2025Not provided~$120 New
FX Drag – EPS ($USD)FY2025Not provided~$4.90 New
CapEx ($USD)FY2025N/A>$1B New
International Store Openings (#)FY2025N/A~100 New
Mega-Hub Target (#)Long-termPrior target lowerNew objective “just under 300” Raised ambition

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev)Q4 2024 (Prev)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
FX impactNot primary focus; constant currency comps referenced FX weighed on reported comps; intl constant currency strong Material headwind; Mexico FX weakened 13%; ~$0.68 EPS drag Worsening
DIY demand & discretionary mixDIY comp -1%; discretionary categories weak; traffic -2%, ticket +1% Domestic SSS +0.2% (16w comparable) DIY comp -0.4%; discretionary ~17% of mix underperforming; traffic -1.8%, ticket +1.3% Mixed/soft
Commercial growth & delivery speedDIFM +3.3%; Mega-Hubs >3x growth vs overall; rollout underway Domestic commercial +10.9% in Q4 (17w), average program $16.7/week DIFM +3.2%; hurricanes hurt first 4 weeks; improving exit rate; speed initiatives ongoing Improving late-quarter
Merchandising margins & LIFO+102 bps GM; $24M LIFO credit; ~$19M remaining to reverse Q4 GM 52.5%; LIFO headwind YoY; FY LIFO net favorability GM +16 bps; +21 bps ex-LIFO; no Q1 LIFO credit; none expected Q2 Stable to modestly positive ex-LIFO
Supply chain/DC capacityTwo new US DCs on track for Q2 FY25; forward inventory deployment N/A in PRNew DCs starting up causing minor drag; continued optimization In ramp-up
Mega-Hub/Hubs strategy>200 at full build-out; strong pipeline N/A in PRTarget “just under 300”; density tests show low cannibalization Accelerating
Regional trends (Rust Belt)NE/Midwest underperformed ~100 bps in last 8 weeks N/A in PRRust Belt underperformed; -1.8% vs -0.1% elsewhere Persistent headwind
Tariffs/macro & inflationHyperinflation moderated; muted ticket growth; industry disciplined pricing N/A in PRSection 301 tariff uncertainty; freight inflation picking up; pricing discipline maintained Watchlist

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered positive 1.8% total company same-store sales with domestic same-store sales growth of 0.3%… International same-store sales up 13.7% on a constant currency basis.” – CEO Phil Daniele .
  • “For Mexico, FX rates weakened 13%… resulting in a $58 million headwind to sales, a $17 million headwind to EBIT and a $0.68 a share drag on EPS.” – CFO Jamere Jackson .
  • “We expect to open around 100 international stores [in FY2025]… and invest more than $1 billion in CapEx in order to drive our strategic growth priorities.” – CEO Phil Daniele .
  • “We have now set a new objective to have just under 300 Mega-Hubs at full buildout.” – CFO Jamere Jackson ; expanded on density tests and low cannibalization .
  • “We are going to invest in infrastructure and opportunities to take advantage of… growth opportunities… without it having a negative impact on operating income [in a lower comp environment].” – CFO Jamere Jackson .
  • “Fiscal 2025 top priorities are… growing share in our domestic commercial business and continuing our momentum in international.” – CEO Phil Daniele .

Q&A Highlights

  • Competitive dynamics: West Coast peer store closures could create long-term share gains; near-term discounting may be a slight headwind in an inelastic category .
  • Weather/cadence: Hurricanes depressed first 4 weeks commercial; volumes normalized in back half; early winter supportive but too soon to call .
  • Comps methodology: Calendar shift negatively impacted comps by ~1 point in Q1; expected drag in Q2 and reversal in Q3–Q4 .
  • Pricing/tariffs: Industry pricing discipline intact; supply chain diversified by country-of-origin and multiple suppliers; freight inflation likely flows into COGS and pricing over time .
  • Capital allocation: Leverage target ~2.5x EBITDAR maintained; flexibility to operate around that “area”; ongoing significant buybacks balanced with growth investments .
  • Mega-Hubs: Density testing supports more locations per market with minimal cannibalization; assets lift both DIY and commercial by reducing delivery times and expanding SKU availability .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 FY2025 were unavailable due to a daily request limit exceeded; as a result, this recap cannot assess beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus for revenue or EPS this quarter [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q1 was resilient operationally: merchandising lifted gross margin while FX and SG&A deleverage weighed on EPS; constant currency comps improved vs Q3–Q4 baseline, with international strength notable .
  • FX is the dominant near-term swing factor: ~$0.68 EPS drag in Q1 and modeled ~$1.30 in Q2; monitor USD/MXN and USD/BRL into spring to refine EPS scenarios .
  • Commercial growth initiatives are gaining traction: inventory proximity (Hubs/Mega-Hubs), delivery speed tech, and Duralast brand strength support share gains as weather normalizes; watch weekly cadence .
  • DIY demand is soft but stabilizing: traffic down and discretionary categories underperforming; seasonal normalization and ticket growth recovery could aid comps as inflation reverts to historical levels .
  • Capex and footprint expansion are stock catalysts: >$1B capex, ~100 international stores in FY2025, and ramp to “just under 300” Mega-Hubs should enhance network effect and sales density over 12–24 months .
  • Model assumptions: use tax rate ~23.4%, interest expense ~$108M for Q2, zero LIFO credit, and incorporate FX translation drags; SG&A disciplined but still investing in IT and store growth .
  • Longer-term thesis: aging car park, underpenetrated commercial share (<~5% per commentary), and international runway underpin durable growth despite near-term macro and FX volatility .

Additional Source Documents Reviewed:

  • Q1 FY2025 press release & 8-K with detailed financial tables .
  • Prior quarters: Q4 FY2024 press release (17-week; adjusted 16-week metrics) ; Q3 FY2024 8-K and transcript (margin/LIFO, DC expansion; commercial initiatives) .
  • Organization changes PR (Dec 19, 2024) for context on merchandising/global sourcing leadership .