AI
AUTOZONE INC (AZO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 FY2025 delivered modest topline growth ($4.28B, +2.1% YoY) with diluted EPS flat at $32.52 amid FX headwinds and SG&A deleverage; gross margin expanded 16 bps to 53.0% on merchandising gains .
- Same-store sales were +0.4% reported and +1.8% constant currency; domestic +0.3%, international +13.7% constant currency (1.0% reported) as a stronger USD depressed reported sales and EPS by ~$0.68 per share; Mexico FX rates weakened 13% vs USD, causing ~$58M sales and ~$17M EBIT drag .
- Management expects Q2 FY2025 FX drag of ~$95M revenue, ~$30M EBIT, ~$1.30 EPS and full-year FY2025 FX drag of ~$355M revenue, ~$120M EBIT, ~$4.90 EPS; no LIFO credit expected in Q2; tax rate suggested at ~23.4% and interest expense ~$108M .
- Strategic catalysts: accelerated Mega-Hub rollout (new objective “just under 300”), ~100 international store openings in FY2025, and >$1B capex focused on inventory proximity, DCs, and technology to lift customer service and delivery speed .
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable due to a data access limit, so we cannot assess beats/misses versus estimates for this quarter [GetEstimates error].
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- International strength: same-store sales up ~13.7% constant currency; reported comps were +1% but FX headwinds masked strong local performance .
- Gross margin expansion: 53.0% (+16 bps YoY; +21 bps ex-LIFO) driven by merchandising margin improvement despite freight inflation and new DC start-up drag .
- Commercial momentum: domestic DIFM sales +3.2% to $1.13B with improving end-of-quarter trends; Mega-Hub strategy driving outsized growth and higher sales per program in those markets .
- Quote: “We feel we are well positioned for growth heading into the remainder of the fiscal year… initiatives to improve customer service and grow market share are on track.” – CEO Phil Daniele .
What Went Wrong
- FX headwinds: Mexico FX rates weakened 13% vs USD, depressing reported sales, EBIT, and EPS; ~$0.68 EPS drag in Q1 .
- SG&A deleverage: operating expenses rose 4.5% YoY; SG&A as % of sales increased 75 bps to 33.3% amid ongoing growth investments in IT and capex .
- DIY softness continues: domestic DIY comp down 0.4%; discretionary categories (~17% of mix) underperformed; traffic down ~1.8% despite +1.3% ticket growth; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt weaker (down ~1.8% vs -0.1% elsewhere) .
- Calendar shift headwind: comp methodology impacted comps by ~1 point this quarter; expected to drag Q2 and reverse in Q3–Q4 .
Financial Results
Notes: Q4 FY2024 was a 17-week quarter; adjusted 16-week figures shown for comparability .
YoY (Q1 FY2025 vs Q1 FY2024):
- Net sales $4.280B vs $4.190B (+2.1%) .
- Diluted EPS $32.52 vs $32.55 (-0.1%) .
- Net income $564.9M vs $593.5M (-4.8%) .
Same-Store Sales and Mix KPIs
Segment/Category Mix – Q1 FY2025
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow – Q1 FY2025
Share Repurchases – Q1 FY2025
- Repurchased 160k shares at avg price $3,156; total $505.2M; remaining authorization $1.7B; cumulative program $37.5B since 1998; shares outstanding end of quarter 16,810k .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered positive 1.8% total company same-store sales with domestic same-store sales growth of 0.3%… International same-store sales up 13.7% on a constant currency basis.” – CEO Phil Daniele .
- “For Mexico, FX rates weakened 13%… resulting in a $58 million headwind to sales, a $17 million headwind to EBIT and a $0.68 a share drag on EPS.” – CFO Jamere Jackson .
- “We expect to open around 100 international stores [in FY2025]… and invest more than $1 billion in CapEx in order to drive our strategic growth priorities.” – CEO Phil Daniele .
- “We have now set a new objective to have just under 300 Mega-Hubs at full buildout.” – CFO Jamere Jackson ; expanded on density tests and low cannibalization .
- “We are going to invest in infrastructure and opportunities to take advantage of… growth opportunities… without it having a negative impact on operating income [in a lower comp environment].” – CFO Jamere Jackson .
- “Fiscal 2025 top priorities are… growing share in our domestic commercial business and continuing our momentum in international.” – CEO Phil Daniele .
Q&A Highlights
- Competitive dynamics: West Coast peer store closures could create long-term share gains; near-term discounting may be a slight headwind in an inelastic category .
- Weather/cadence: Hurricanes depressed first 4 weeks commercial; volumes normalized in back half; early winter supportive but too soon to call .
- Comps methodology: Calendar shift negatively impacted comps by ~1 point in Q1; expected drag in Q2 and reversal in Q3–Q4 .
- Pricing/tariffs: Industry pricing discipline intact; supply chain diversified by country-of-origin and multiple suppliers; freight inflation likely flows into COGS and pricing over time .
- Capital allocation: Leverage target ~2.5x EBITDAR maintained; flexibility to operate around that “area”; ongoing significant buybacks balanced with growth investments .
- Mega-Hubs: Density testing supports more locations per market with minimal cannibalization; assets lift both DIY and commercial by reducing delivery times and expanding SKU availability .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 FY2025 were unavailable due to a daily request limit exceeded; as a result, this recap cannot assess beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus for revenue or EPS this quarter [GetEstimates error].
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q1 was resilient operationally: merchandising lifted gross margin while FX and SG&A deleverage weighed on EPS; constant currency comps improved vs Q3–Q4 baseline, with international strength notable .
- FX is the dominant near-term swing factor: ~$0.68 EPS drag in Q1 and modeled ~$1.30 in Q2; monitor USD/MXN and USD/BRL into spring to refine EPS scenarios .
- Commercial growth initiatives are gaining traction: inventory proximity (Hubs/Mega-Hubs), delivery speed tech, and Duralast brand strength support share gains as weather normalizes; watch weekly cadence .
- DIY demand is soft but stabilizing: traffic down and discretionary categories underperforming; seasonal normalization and ticket growth recovery could aid comps as inflation reverts to historical levels .
- Capex and footprint expansion are stock catalysts: >$1B capex, ~100 international stores in FY2025, and ramp to “just under 300” Mega-Hubs should enhance network effect and sales density over 12–24 months .
- Model assumptions: use tax rate ~23.4%, interest expense ~$108M for Q2, zero LIFO credit, and incorporate FX translation drags; SG&A disciplined but still investing in IT and store growth .
- Longer-term thesis: aging car park, underpenetrated commercial share (<~5% per commentary), and international runway underpin durable growth despite near-term macro and FX volatility .
Additional Source Documents Reviewed:
- Q1 FY2025 press release & 8-K with detailed financial tables .
- Prior quarters: Q4 FY2024 press release (17-week; adjusted 16-week metrics) ; Q3 FY2024 8-K and transcript (margin/LIFO, DC expansion; commercial initiatives) .
- Organization changes PR (Dec 19, 2024) for context on merchandising/global sourcing leadership .